Non-Obvious 2019- How To Predict Trends and Win The Future Read online

  In many ways, Samsung 837 found its roots in a retail trend we wrote about in 2015: Reverse Retail. That trend described how many online-only retailers were creating brick-and-mortar stores to satisfy customers who wanted to see, touch, and feel products prior to buying them. The clothing retailer Bonobos, for example, opened branded “Guideshops”—showrooms where customers could try clothing on before placing the order online. Online mattress retailer Casper has been aggressively investing in opening retail locations, mainly in shopping malls across the United States, and plans to open more than 200 physical stores in the coming months.[4]

  Reverse Retail & the Omnishopper

  All of these physical stores aren’t just driving purchases online, either. A group of consumers one recent study dubbed “omnishoppers”[5] are researching products online and then buying them in-store, providing even more evidence that the physical retail experience is far from dead.

  Far from the glitz of Samsung’s New York-based hub, midwestern retailer MartinPatrick provides a good example of a traditional retailer that has garnered significant attention by creating one of the most unique retail experiences in the country. Located in the hip outskirts of the Twin Cities in Minnesota, the store sells an unusual combination of products: furniture alongside men’s suits and interior design services.

  The store itself—housed in an 130-year-old warehouse that used to be a streetcar company—delights customers with its beautiful and careful design, as well as its bar and in-house barber shop where customers can relax. What sets it apart is the idea that a retail experience doesn’t need to focus on just one vertical or one experience. Instead, creating one that operates almost like a tiny city block, with a bar and barber shop built in, is a recipe for something that people will want to return to over and over again—and rave about.

  In an age in which every consumer says they want an experience, one can argue that physical stores where brands can captivate their customers have become more important than ever—whether they are trying to sell their products there, online…or not at all.

  Live Experiences

  After delivering a keynote at an event last year, I was having drinks with a group of attendees when suddenly, several people’s phone alarms went off simultaneously. It was 9 p.m., and those alarms meant it was time to play HQ Trivia.

  Launched in late 2017, HQ Trivia is a mobile trivia game “airing” on weekdays at 3 p.m. and 9 p.m. The format of the game is simple: you compete with other players to correctly answer 12 multiple-choice questions of increasing difficulty. Get them all right, and you’ll automatically split the cash prize for that day with all other players receiving a perfect score.

  HQ Trivia Mobile App

  What’s fascinating about the meteoric rise of the game is how it has demonstrated that at a time when almost all entertainment is available on demand, people will still set their alarms and tune in real-time for the right kind of engaging live experience.

  This willingness to engage in live experiences isn’t limited to mobile apps, either. To promote the release of the movie musical The Greatest Showman, Twentieth Century Fox broadcasted a live commercial featuring an elaborate performance by its star, Hugh Jackman, his film co-stars, and more than 150 dancers. The live ad helped to propel fan enthusiasm, and generated enough word of mouth to turn the film into a runaway hit.

  These two live experiences illustrate how Strategic Spectacles can help creators and organizations alike to leverage attention in the moment to drive engagement, enthusiasm, and anticipation.

  I realize that throughout this chapter, it will be tempting to apply a negative judgement to the idea of creating a “spectacle” in the first place. The word itself is generally used somewhat negatively. Yet ironically, when something is described as “spectacular,” it is always good. Spectacles can have a similarly dual effect. Some may feel manipulated and overly produced, while others can inspire awe in a good way. The point in this chapter is not to grade them as good or bad, but rather to realize that they (and the reactions they inspire) are being done strategically.

  Art as Spectacle

  Like the creators of the live commercial for The Greatest Showman and the colorful pop-up venues, artists are also creating spectacles by leveraging live experiences in the development of their work.

  In early October 2018, a painting by the anonymous British street artist Banksy was sold at auction for $1.4 million. Seconds after the sale was complete, the bottom half of the work passed through a shredder concealed within the frame. Originally entitled Girl with Balloon, the piece was retitled Love is in the Bin, and the buyer, a female European art collector, decided to keep the work anyway. Her decision may have been influenced in part by the fact that most critics agreed that its value was likely already higher than the price she paid to acquire the piece.

  While some dismiss Banky’s artwork as a mere stunt to subvert the established art world, Sotheby’s head of contemporary art declared the painting historic: “the first artwork in history to have been created live during an auction.” Whether the painting goes down in history as a prank or a respected piece of art, the spectacle undeniably earned Banksy something quite rare, for most artists: attention from the mainstream.[6]

  The elusive Parisian street artist known only to his fans as Invader doesn’t create spectacles with stunts designed to shock the art world. Instead, he does so with his unusual art “game:” about once a week, he installs a piece of street art somewhere around the world and announces it to his more than 40,000 Instagram followers, along with the hashtag #invaderwashere and an approximate location.

  Example of Invader’s street art (Photo Credit: Lorie Shaull, Flickr)

  The unspoken challenge issued with each image is to find that installation, take a photo using a GPS-enabled phone, and post it before the art is found or stolen by thieves eager to sell it. Those who successfully post a photo earn points to increase their rank among players—and bragging rights.

  Both Banksy and Invader have an intuitive understanding of the power of Strategic Spectacle to attract and sustain attention for their art. More importantly, they both use it intentionally to make fans out of ordinary people (who might not otherwise be interested in art) while retaining their mystique.

  Why It Matters

  When deciding what to call this trend, we chose our words very carefully. When we say something is “spectacular,” we usually mean that it is memorable and worthy of our attention. As I shared earlier, the word “spectacle” can have either positive or negative connotations. Some may question whether the Museum of Ice Cream or Invader’s street art are as worthy of our attention as the Smithsonian or the Getty Museum,for example; but by creating a spectacle in a deliberate way, they have nonetheless captured it.

  The need to develop a strategy for creating spectacle is a natural result of a crowded media landscape. The harder it is to stand out, the more audacious creators need to be. Yet the implication of this trend is not that those who yell the loudest in a desperate attempt to be heard over the din will win. In a world in which Strategic Spectacles proliferate, the most frequent winners will be those who direct their teams’ creativity toward using spectacle to convert momentary attention into longer-lasting engagement.

  How to Use This Trend

  Engage in flip thinking–The most effective spectacles are those no one else is doing, and that may even run counter to what everyone else does. No artist would ever destroy his or her own painting. Most stores don’t invite people to come in and try products without buying them. This type of counterintuitive thinking works, because it demands to be noticed.

  Don’t forget the strategy–The challenge isn’t to create a spectacle, but rather to create one that is strategic, and moves the needle where it matters for your business. The founders of the Museum of Ice Cream didn’t just create a whimsical installation about ice cream. They strategically crafted each installation to satisfy visitors’ desire to take unique selfies and post them on soci
al media-generating significant word-of-mouth that resulted in sold out exhibits.

  05

  Muddled Masculinity

  What’s the Trend?

  The rising empowerment of women and reevaluation of gender itself are causing widespread confusion and angst about what it means to be a man today.

  When I was in middle school, my favorite book series was

  Sweet Valley High, which followed the lives of Jessica and Elizabeth Wakefield, identical twins from the fictional town of Sweet Valley, California.

  Sweet Valley High was the brainchild of author Francine Pascal, who eventually built what the L.A. Times called “a one-woman publishing industry,” hiring ghostwriters to write nearly two hundred books in the series. At its peak in 1985, 18 books in the series were listed on Waldenbooks’ Top 20 Titles for young adults. Often called “teen Harlequins,” these books were highly popular at the time, and inspired young readers to turn to books instead of TV.

  Young female readers, that is.

  As Pascal told the L.A. Times in an interview, “The truth is, boys read until about age 12, then they go outside and don’t come back in until they are about 18.”[7] I remember loving to go outside, so my younger years did resemble the first part of her statement… but every time I came back in, it would be to read another story about the romantic adventures of Jessica and Elizabeth.

  I also I remember, with some embarrassment, how odd it was for a young boy to be checking out five or six Sweet Valley High books at a time from the library. On more than one occasion, I’m sure the librarian assumed I was getting them for my nonexistent sister. A boy reading about love, relationships, and high school drama was out of the ordinary in the late 1980s.

  In the time since, our perspectives on gender roles have shifted dramatically. Women continue to break through old-fashioned gender roles and make strides in the workforce, business, and culture—even as the #MeToo movement sheds light on how much further we still have to go as a society in this regard. (Readers of the 2017 edition of this book will recall that I wrote extensively about the increasing celebration and empowerment of fiercely independent women in the past trend prediction Fierce Femininity).

  Even the very idea of gender is being reevaluated, a trend I called Ungendered, and which I explored deeply in the 2018 edition of this book. For a look at the previous 100+ trend predictions from our team, along with transparent ratings of how they fared over time, turn to Part IV of this book.

  Our perspective on male gender roles—particularly how we perceive masculinity and fatherhood—remains fairly confused. Sadly, decades later, a young boy checking out Sweet Valley High books at the local library will likely still get a few raised eyebrows.

  That’s why it is fitting that in 2019, we turn our attention to men—specifically, a trend we’ve been tracking called Muddled Masculinity. Put simply, changes to male gender roles and ideals of masculinity are emerging with a speed similar to the dramatic changes to female gender roles, but often with less clarity. The result is that more men (and boys) are feeling confused and anxious about what it means to be a man today–a fact that we believe will affect every workplace, team dynamic, and conversation with men as customers, colleagues, and members of the community.

  The Confusing Ideal of Masculinity

  In June 2018, the opinion-polling website FiveThirtyEight commissioned a survey of 1,615 adults who identify as men. They wanted to find out whether the recent media attention given to gender inequality and sexual harassment at work (symbolized by the hashtag #MeToo) has changed men’s thinking on masculinity.

  The results were conflicted. Fifty-three percent of surveyed men said it was important for them that others see them as masculine. Forty-nine percent reported always trying to pay the bill when out on a date. More than half felt that, in the wake of the #MeToo movement, it was a disadvantage to be male at work, as “they are at a greater risk of being accused of sexual harassment.”[8]

  The survey results suggested that even as other parts of our culture are in the midst of a reckoning over gender roles and inequality at work, many men continue to feel the same pressures of society to adhere to a traditional and outdated ideal of what it means to be a man. In a powerful piece for The Atlantic, writer Sarah Rich points to the Boy Scouts of America as an example of how boys are still directed toward traditional ideals of masculinity at an early age.

  Recently, the Boy Scouts of America made the decision to allow girls to join its organization. But there was no similar conversation about whether boys might be allowed to join the ranks of the Girl Scouts. As Rich asks, would any boy even want to? We’ve been encouraging girls to embrace aspects of themselves that have traditionally been called “masculine,”and to be unafraid of enjoying activities like learning how to tie knots or building a pinewood racing car (both activities traditionally done by Boy Scouts).

  The same understanding, though, is rarely extended to boys who might choose the more social or artistic activities typically offered to Girl Scouts, like being a “social butterfly” or learning how to be a screenwriter (both badge-earning activities offered to Girl Scouts).[9]

  Approaching gender equality by focusing exclusively upon empowering girls unintentionally reinforces the idea that girls who embrace more traditionally masculine behaviors, such as being assertive and courageous, will be more successful, while boys who embrace more traditionally feminine behaviors, such as being kind and cooperative, will not.

  “When school officials and parents send a message to children that ‘boyish’ girls are badass but ‘girlish’ boys are embarrassing, they are telling kids that society values and rewards masculinity, but not femininity,”[10] Rich concludes. When boys get this message, it reinforces the confusing belief that there is only one way to be a boy (and, by extension, only one way to act like a man). And that way doesn’t involve engaging in any activity that is seen as being “for girls.” Especially not reading teenage romance novels.

  Doofus Dads and Masculinity Reinvented

  If men learn to embrace a traditional ideal of masculinity when they are boys, they continue their education through the media. They learn how men are expected to talk and behave from what they see on advertisements, on TV, and in pop culture. And all too often, what they see are images of toxic masculinity.

  According to the Good Men Project, toxic masculinity is:

  “...a narrow and repressive description of manhood, designating manhood as defined by violence, sex, status and aggression... where strength is everything while emotions are a weakness.”[11]

  The good news is, things might be changing. Some brands are recognizing the dangers of such a version of masculinity, and hope to counter it through their advertisements.

  “Is it okay for guys not to like sports?”

  “Is it okay to wear pink?”

  “Is it okay to be emotional?”

  These are just some of the questions highlighted in a widely praised advertising campaign from the men’s grooming brand Axe (also known as Lynx in the U.K., Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand). In the commercials, these and other, similar questions—all derived from actual web searches—are narrated by a voiceover on top of images of various men. They illustrate just how conflicted guys are today about the messages they receive about what it means to be a man.

  As Rik Strubel, Global Vice President at Axe, said in a statement about the campaign, “We can’t just tell guys to be themselves without addressing the underlying cultural issues and restrictive definitions of manhood holding them back in the first place. It not only hurts guys, it hurts everyone.”[12]

  In 2017, the brand also partnered with the Brazilian advocacy group Promundo to publish a study called The Man Box,[13] which examined young men ages 18 to 30 in the U.S., the U.K., and Mexico–and found that most men still feel pushed to live in the “man box–a rigid construct of cultural ideas about male identity. This includes being self-sufficient, acting tough, looking physically attractive, sticking t
o rigid gender roles, being heterosexual, having sexual prowess, and using aggression to resolve conflicts.”

  By spotlighting the so-called “Man Box” (and its corresponding “rules,” like the one below), the brand was trying to encourage guys to think outside of it.

  Lynx/Axe Ad - “Man Box”

  While Axe is at the forefront of brands trying to denounce toxic masculinity and help men navigate what it really means to be a man, other brands continue to reinforce outdated stereotypes of men and masculinity. Perhaps nothing exemplifies this more than the countless ads showing “helpless” dads in childrearing or domestic activities. Whereas women are getting more gender-shifting messages from advertisers (you can do anything!), men often continue to get the message that they are incompetent, lovable doofuses when it comes to domestic matters.[14]

  The double standard sends a damaging implicit message: why even try, when you are going to be ridiculed and screw up anyway? Just leave it to the women, who are so good at this stuff....

  Even though there’s widespread dissatisfaction with these stereotypes, the ads endure. A recent survey from MDG Advertising found that 85 percent of fathers said they knew more than advertisers give them credit for, and 74 percent of millennial fathers felt advertisers and marketers were “out of touch with modern family dynamics.”