Non-Obvious 2019- How To Predict Trends and Win The Future
Also by the Author:
Personality Not Included: Why Companies Lose Their Authenticity–and How Great Brands Get It Back
Likeonomics: The Unexpected Truth Behind Earning Trust,
Influencing Behavior, and Inspiring Action
ePatient: 15 Surprising Trends Changing Healthcare
(with co-author Fard Johnmar)
Always Eat Left-Handed: 15 Surprising Secrets For Killing It at Work and in Real Life
The Non-Obvious Guide to Small Business Marketing (Without a Big Budget)
ABOUT THE NON-OBVIOUS TREND SERIES
Wall Street Journal Bestseller
Winner: Eric Hoffer Book Award (Business Book of the Year) Finalist: AMA-Berry Prize (American Marketing Association)
Winner: Axiom Award (Silver Medal - Business Theory) Winner: INDIE Book Award (Gold Medal - Business)
Official Selection: Gary’s Book Club at CES
For the past nine years, the Non-Obvious Trend Series has been one of the most widely-read curated annual predictions about business and marketing trends in the world, reaching well over 1 million readers and utilized by dozens of global brands.
Each new annual edition features 15 original trend predictions alongside detailed insights on how to use those trends to evolve your business or fast-track your career.
Non-Obvious has been translated into 10 languages globally,with new editions to be released throughout the coming year.
For more details about booking private workshops, keynote speaking engagements, training, or custom print editions of books from the series, visit www.nonobviouscompany.com.
PRAISE FOR NON-OBVIOUS
Non-Obvious is a sharp, articulate, and immediately useful book about one of my favorite topics: the future. Filled with actionable advice and entertaining stories, Rohit offers an essential guidebook to using the power of curation to understand and prepare for the future of business.
—DANIEL H. PINK,
Author of To Sell Is Human and Drive
There are very few books that I read hoping that no one else around me will. They’re the books that are so insightful, so thought provoking and so illuminating that they provide powerful competitive advantage. Non-Obvious is one of those. Pass on it at your own peril.
—SHIV SINGH,
SVP Global Head of Digital & Marketing Transformation at VISA and author of Social Media Marketing For Dummies
This is one of those rare books that delivers insights that are both useful and help illuminate where business is going. It’s a great read.
—CHARLES DUHIGG,
Author of the bestseller The Power Of Habit
The insights in Rohit’s Non-Obvious Trends are an invaluable guide to understanding our customer’s customer. His predictions are useful and highly anticipated within our group across the globe every year. As a B2B marketer and leader, this is one of my rare must-read recommendations for my entire team.
—NAVEEN RAJDEV,
Chief Marketing Officer, Wipro
It doesn’t take a crystal ball to predict that digital is the future. Rather than tell you what you already know, Rohit sets his sights on something much more important: helping you adopt a more curious and observant mindset to understand the world around you. If you believe in a lifetime of learning, read this book!
—JONATHAN BECHER,
Chief Marketing Officer, SAP
A lot of books promise to help you see things differently but Rohit’s book actually delivers. His insightful blend of visual thinking and business strategy shows you how to find meaningful patterns that others miss. A real mind-opener.
—SUNNI BROWN,
Author, Gamestorming and The Doodle Revolution
Shatter your magic crystal ball, and toss out the tea leaves. In this book, Rohit shows us how and where to find the future trends that will shape your business, your brand, and even your own decision-making.
—SALLY HOGSHEAD
NY Times bestselling author of How The World Sees You
Lots of books tell you to “think different” but Non-Obvious is one of the few books that actually teaches you how to do it. Whether you are trying to persuade clients, motivate a team, or just impress a demanding boss —Non-Obvious can help you succeed. I’ve already purchased copies for my entire team.
—JOHN GERZEMA
New York Times best-selling author and social strategist
The best books approach their topic with a spirit of generosity. Rohit’s new book offers insight into the business and cultural trends that matter. And why they do. And what actions they might inspire. But more than that, it also generously teaches you how to develop your own process, for evaluating the trends that matter and those that don’t. Also, it’s well-written. Which makes it a joy (and not a chore!) to read!
—Ann Handley
Chief Content Officer, MarketingProfs
Non-Obvious is simple, elegant and powerful - one of those intensely engaging books that I couldn’t put down. Every year I use the ideas in this book to help my team see new opportunities and out think our competition.
—HOPE FRANK
Chief Marketing and Digital Officer + Futurist
Rohit Bhargava’s “Likeonomics” is the gold standard on understanding the social economy. His new book had me at “predict the future” but there’s much more than that in here. It’s about seeing the world in a new way —plus a powerful argument for how curation can change your organization.
—SREE SREENIVASAN
Former Chief Digital Officer, The Metropolitan Museum of Art
Rohit provides a goldmine of ideas and trends that will shape the future of marketing and product development. Read this book to get in front of the herd.
—GUY KAWASAKI
Chief Evangelist of Canva. , Author of The Art of the Start, 2.0
Our industry is all about the future – the future of kids, the future of schools, the future of education. In the admissions office, the ability to recognize and leverage that future is an indispensable skill. In Non-Obvious, Rohit provides us the tools we require to perform those functions with precision and get better at predicting what will be important tomor- row based on improving your observations of today.
—HEATHER HOERLE
Executive Director, The Enrollment Management Association
Seeing things that others don’t is perhaps the highest form of creativity that exists. Unlock the Non-Obvious approach and you can write your ticket to success in any field.
—JOHN JANTSCH
Author of Duct Tape Marketing and Duct Tape Selling
In Non-Obvious Rohit shares valuable tips, tricks, methodologies and insightful curated trends to help readers navigate the future. Recommended!
—ROSS DAWSON
Chairman, Future Exploration Network
Very few people understand the world of digital business better than Rohit and I have introduced my clients to his ideas for years. His new book is a must-read resource for learning to see patterns, anticipate global trends, and think like a futurist every day!
—GERD LEONHARD
Author and Keynote Speaker Basel / Switzerland
Non-Obvious should be called oblivious since that’s how you’ll be if this book isn’t on your shelf. I actually wish some of Rohit’s predictions won’t come true (‘Selfie Confidence’!? Nooo!) ... but usually they do. He’s the best at this, and this book shows you why.
—SCOTT STRATTEN
Four time Best-Selling Author, including 2014 Sales Book of the Year: UnSelling
Artfully lacing stories together to pull out si
mple, yet powerful trends, Rohit offers a blueprint for making trend identification a key component of your business strategy. The format of his book makes it easy for the novice to adopt these principles, and for the expert to glean pearls of wisdom. While the title is Non Obvious, your next step should be obvious —read this book today!
—JOEY COLEMAN
Chief Experience Composer at Design Symphony
Non-Obvious is a powerhouse ‘must read’ for corporate executives, marketeers and product and service developers. Rohit Bhargava provides valuable, entertaining and easily understood sideways insights into critical trends shaping the near future. He lifts the lid on the myths surrounding the dark arts of trend prediction and offers very practical guidance on how to spot, curate and capitalize on Non Obvious trends.
—ROHIT TALWAR
Global Futurist and CEO Fast Future Research
Copyright © 2019 by Rohit Bhargava
All rights reserved.
Published in the United States by Ideapress Publishing.
Ideapress Publishing | www.ideapresspublishing.com
Non-Obvious® is a registered trademark of the Influential Marketing Group.
All trademarks are the property of their respective companies.
Cover Design by Jeff Miller/Faceout Studios
Cover Photo by Javier Pérez
Interior Design by Jocelyn Mandryk
Cataloging-in-Publication Data is on file with the Library of Congress.
ISBN: 978-1-940858-52-4 (e-book)
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To my parents – for always giving me
a chance to see the world in my own way…
even if it wasn’t always non-obvious.
AUTHOR’S NOTE:
The 2018 Edition – What’s New
and Non-Obvious?
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This is a book about learning to predict the future.
Every year, my team and I spend hundreds of hours reading thousands of stories, conducting dozens of interviews, attending and speaking at nearly 50 events, reading or reviewing more than 100 new books, and then combining all that research to identify 15 trends that will change the world in the coming year.
Whether you have read a previous edition of this book or not, this new edition features much more than just new trend predictions. Here are the updates you’ll find in the book this year:
Optimized interior design with new charts and images
Updated appendix featuring ratings of over 100 past trends
Additional images of my trend-curation method
A new guide to notetaking and effectively saving ideas
And, of course, 15 more trends for 2019!
While it will be tempting to focus on the new, I highly encourage you to check out the past and previously predicted trends, as well. You will find the answer there to the one question everyone asks: “Did your predictions come true?” The other thing you might discover, though, is that new trends don’t make old trends irrelevant.
Rather, trends are meant to describe an accelerating idea, and if those past predictions were actually “non-obvious” when predicted, then they may become more obvious over time–but still ring true.
Whether you actively seek to understand the future or find yourself curious about the past, this book will help you indulge that curiosity and channel it toward creating new and interesting ideas.
The most important thing I hope you will take from it, though, is the belief that there is real value in being more open-minded, accepting people who think differently than you do, and seeing the world in more “non-obvious” ways.
The world needs your empathy and leadership now more than ever. I can’t wait to see what you come up with.
Rohit Bhargava
Washington DC
January 2019
INTRODUCTION
“I am not a speed reader, I am a speed understander.”
ISAAC ASIMOV, Author, Historian and Biochemist
_
Nearly 150 years ago the Dewey Decimal Classification System ambitiously introduced a method to break down the published volumes of the world into ten main categories. Isaac Asimov has written at least one book in nine of them.
In his prolific lifetime, he wrote nearly five hundred books on topics ranging from his beloved science fiction series to a two-volume work explaining the collected literature of William Shakespeare. He even wrote a reader’s guidebook to the Bible.
Though he was celebrated for his science fiction, Asimov never defined his work using a single category. When asked to name his favorite book, he often joked, “the last one I’ve written.” He cannot be described only as a scientist or a theologian or a literary critic.
He was, without question, a writer and thinker with an incredible curiosity for ideas. In fact, he used this curiosity to maintain his grueling schedule of publishing, which at its peak resulted in about fifteen books per year. His secret, if there was just one, seemed to be in his ability to juggle multiple projects at once.
When he became stuck during writing (which indeed happened to him just as it does to any writer), Asimov would simply move on to one of his other in-progress projects. He never stared at a blank sheet of paper.
He credited his ability to focus on so many areas at once to his voracious appetite for reading and his capacity for being a “speed understander.” What if you could become a speed understander like Asimov?
I believe we all can.
The simple aim of this book is to teach you how to notice the things that others miss. I call this “non-obvious” thinking and learning to do it for yourself can change your business and your career.
The context within which I’ll talk about this type of thinking is business trends. For better or worse, most of us are fascinated by trends and those who predict them. We anticipate these predictions as a glimpse into the future and they capture our imagination.
There’s only one problem—too many trends are based on guesswork or lazy thinking. In other words, they are obvious instead of non-obvious.
This book was inspired by the landslide of obvious ideas we are surrounded with and our desire to do something better with them.
In a world where everyone is one click away from being a self-declared expert, learning to think differently is more important than ever. Observing and curating ideas can lead to a unique understanding of why people choose to buy, sell, or believe anything.
A non-obvious trend is a unique curated observation about the accelerating present.
Unlike many other far-future predictions, the trends and methods in this book are designed to help you right now. There are plenty of people who can tell you what the world might be like twenty years from now. Sadly, many of those are guesses or wishful thinking. How many trend forecasters do you think predicted the rise of something like Twitter back in 1996 when it was first created? Exactly zero.
Yet this doesn’t mean curating trends (or honing your ability to predict them) is useless. The most powerful trends can offer predictions for the short-term future based on observing the present. The truth is, knowing the short-term future is more valuable than you may think.
Why Does Trend Curation Matter?
Most of our life decisions happen in the short-term, though we may describe them differently. You choose to start a business in the short-term. You choose who to marry in the short-term. You change careers from one role to the next, all in the short-term.
Long-term decisions start in the short-term, so understanding how the world is changing in real time is far more valuable in your day-to-day career and life than trying to guess what will happen in the world twenty years from now.
When I speak at industry events, I often describe myself first as a “trend curator.” The reason I use that term is because it describes my passion for collecting ideas and taking the time to see the patterns in them to describe the world in new and interesting ways. In this book, you will learn the exact step-by-step method I use and how to become a trend curator yourself.
The result of all of my idea collection is that for the past eight years I have published an annual list of fifteen trends that will shape the business world in the year to come. Across that time, I have advised some of the largest brands in the world on business strategy, taught several courses at Georgetown University, and been invited to speak at events in thirty-two countries around the world.
All of this gives me the valuable chance to gain firsthand insight into dozens of different industries and to study media, culture, marketing, technology, design, and economics with an unfiltered eye. Adding to these real-life interactions, I also read or review dozens of books and buy magazines on everything from cloud computing to Amish farming methods.
My philosophy is to collect ideas the way frequent fliers collect miles—as momentary rewards to use for later redemption.
Why I Wrote Non-Obvious
When I first started writing an annual list of predictions in 2011, my intent was to share trends as ideas that didn’t have a home with any project I was working on at the time in my role at a large marketing agency. In 2015 the first edition of this book expanded beyond the trends themselves to feature an inside look at my process for curating trends and detailed instructions for how you can learn to curate your own ideas.
The book is divided into four parts.
Part I is dedicated to sharing my methods of trend curation, which I have usually only taught in depth through private workshops or with my students in class. You will learn the greatest myths of trend prediction, five essential habits of trend curators, and my own step-by-step approach to curating trends, which I call the Haystack Method.